Where on earth to start after the most incredible political event most of us can ever remember? I’ve just returned to the UK and will be writing more over the weekend but for this first piece, I’ll simply settle up the portfolio ahead of wider explanation and analysis.
Obviously, Trump becoming president was a catastrophe – easily my worst ever political betting outcome – although it could have been a lot worse. As advised on Twitter whilst the drama was unfolding, I managed to cover some of my losses, but by no means all.
#Election2016 urgent bet update! Taking the hit. Laid Hilary Clinton 200 units @ 2.2.
— Political Gambler (@paulmotty) November 9, 2016
Trump is winning this. The races in MI, VA and WI are too close.
— Political Gambler (@paulmotty) November 9, 2016
Another #Election2016 bet update: 100 units on Donald Trump to be Next President @ 1.7.
— Political Gambler (@paulmotty) November 9, 2016
Another #Election2016 bet: Laid (opposed) Donald Trump 100 units @ 1.17. It's unlikely but Clinton still has a route and odds could swing.
— Political Gambler (@paulmotty) November 9, 2016
All things added up, it amounted to a 358 unit loss on the published portfolio in Betfair’s Next President market.
Set against 87 units profit made on the Republican Nomination, 54 profit on the VP Nominee markets, plus various primary and state bets, the US Election cycle cost me 194 units.
It wipes out the 170 units profit made on Brexit and the 22 units from Jeremy Corbyn’s re-election. I’ve still made some small money from politics this year – from a couple of bets not listed in those portfolios (an early sell of Jeb Bush plus a Brexit spread bet) and the Tory leadership but I won’t pretend this isn’t a seriously disappointing result!
Particularly because I played the market unprofessionally, not taking the advice I’d given others about covers. Hedging my position either going into the final day or after the first results would have been easy. Back Trump at big odds to win Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan at big odds in the knowledge that one from three would yield a profit, while all three would yield a big win and enable the sort of covers that I placed in-running on the main result.
I paid a price for getting greedy. I never thought Trump had a prayer and, on reflection, perhaps became obsessive about never wavering whilst other prediction models constantly hedged. Gambling, rather than trading.
A stupid exercise in vanity and lack of self-discipline. You don’t spend 15 years as a professional gambler (after ten as a semi-pro) without knowing these are fundamental mistakes. There are no certainties in betting and one should never leave massive risk open when the option to at least cheaply remove most of it exists.
England’s historic win in the 1994 Barbados Test Match was the last time I can recall beating myself up so badly. Nevertheless, I know how to take a hit and move forward. That won’t be a problem.
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