Portfolio update: Trading and hedging plans explained
As implied in yesterday’s piece, I could hardly be more confident about my long-running pro-Clinton positions. Trump is headed for a big defeat and the task is to measure the scale of it. At this...
View ArticleDebate Review: Donald Trump blows his final chance
Fighting against a backdrop of terrible polls, Donald Trump desperately needed a gamechanging, momentum-reversing performance in last night’s third and final debate. He didn’t produce it. Compared to...
View ArticleHow Evan McMullin could be the next #POTUS
One of many strange features of this unique election cycle has been that, ever since the primary process yielded historically unpopular candidates, there has been constant speculation about finding...
View ArticleA Clinton landslide is still under-rated
The following piece was published on Thursday, before the latest e-mail drama. The odds have moved considerably since against Clinton, but the general argument still applies. With less than a fortnight...
View ArticleAre new Clinton e-mail revelations a gamechanger?
In ten days, hundreds of millions of people will breathe a huge sigh of relief as the strangest, most entertaining, depressing, dramatic and unpredictable election in democratic history is finally...
View ArticleFive ways to profit from election side markets
With nearly £90M matched already, Betfair’s Next President market is well on course to become the biggest political betting event of all-time. This main market, however, is only the tip of the iceberg....
View ArticleUS Election Betting Portfolio Update
Trading inevitably involves navigating peaks and troughs in the market. Timing is pivotal to success. Whilst it has been profitable so far and I remain extremely confident about the outcome, on the...
View ArticleState of play: Clinton remains strong favourite
Two days out from the conclusion of the most incredible election cycle and biggest political betting event in history, the verdict of Betfair punters remains the same as it has ever since the market...
View Article5 reasons why I’m still all in on Clinton
When I was first asked my prediction to be the Next US President back in July 2015, the answer needed no hesitation – Hillary Rodham Clinton. She was favourite on Betfair’s market back then and,...
View ArticleFinal US Election Portfolio
Where on earth to start after the most incredible political event most of us can ever remember? I’ve just returned to the UK and will be writing more over the weekend but for this first piece, I’ll...
View ArticleHow electoral systems keep fooling betting markets
The US Election votes are still being counted but with each day that passes, this result looks ever more like the greatest electoral anomaly in living memory. Hillary Clinton is on course to win by the...
View ArticleRomney must be opposed at short odds
There are many things that we should have learned about Donald Trump over the past 18 months – most of all that he routinely breaks political convention and is unpredictable. Which is why playing...
View ArticleTrump backed for early exit as Russia allegations persist
If you thought 2016 was a freak political year, ahead of a return to business as usual, think again. Next week, the unlikeliest President in US history will take office and Donald Trump shows no sign...
View ArticleFive immediate challenges facing Donald Trump
1) Unite the American public behind his controversial presidency or at least gain legitimacy While there has rarely if ever been a candidate who so starkly divided opinion, there are a couple of...
View ArticlePolitical betting goes global after record year
Whatever one thinks of Brexit, Donald Trump and the wave of anti-establishment populism sweeping the Western world, we should all be able to agree that politics became a lot more interesting and...
View ArticleWill Russia scandal destroy Trump’s presidency?
It isn’t everyday that one pities a man whose job is to head the FBI, but surely nobody could envy the political tightrope James Comey has walked these past 18 months and counting. In an ever more...
View ArticleWill Donald Trump be forced out early?
Everything about his unique campaign suggested the Trump presidency would not be a conventional one, and so it has proved. A mere 121 days in, Betfair punters are backing him to leave before the end of...
View ArticleGamblers are obsessed with the Trump Impeachment Saga
When it all began nearly two years ago, we all knew it would be entertaining. What we didn’t realize was that entertainment would ultimately trump politics, and the daily business of the leader of the...
View ArticleThe tide is turning against Donald Trump
After two years of the unlikeliest front-line political candidate in history repeatedly defying conventional wisdom, expert opinion and betting markets, it is tempting to tire of asking the question....
View ArticleTrump now rated likelier to leave early than not
For several weeks – roughly since the Charlottesville riots – the likelihood of Donald Trump failing to last a full term as President has consistently traded above 50% on Betfair markets. Reflecting...
View Article