2020 US Election Betting: Who will be the Democrat candidate?
Less than a year after the most memorable election in the history of political betting, it is time to start thinking seriously about the sequel. While speculation remains rife regarding whether...
View ArticleMarkets move against Trump after Mueller’s opening Russia arrests
From the moment he entered politics, Donald Trump has repeatedly defied the verdict of Betfair markets. After what will be known forever as Mueller Monday, he will need to defy them again merely in...
View ArticleTrump effect looms large over bellweather Virginia race
For all the turbulence in US politics over the last 12 dramatic months, it appears opinion has barely changed. A hypothetical poll taken last week suggests a rematch between Donald Trump and Hillary...
View ArticleToxic Moore means a win win scenario for Democrats
If you thought US politics would return to normality soon, tonight’s special election in Alabama should end that delusion. A race that would in normal times be entirely predictable and barely noted...
View Article2017 Review: The Year of the Liberal Backlash
For the third straight year, Betfair markets illustrated the new politics. Highly unpredictable, with conventional wisdom in crisis and unprecedented volatility. We have seen an outsider, with no party...
View ArticleFive political markets to follow in 2018
The date of the next UK General Election Whilst political betting is fast becoming a global phenomenon, nothing still quite compares to an election in the country that revolutionised it. Each of the...
View ArticleThe Trump ship may finally sink in 2018
In a stark change from the trajectory of recent years, Betfair markets are taking a steadily improving view of Donald Trump’s prospects. From a low point of 43% in the wake of indictments related to...
View ArticleOprah for President? Six celebrities in contention for 2020
It was inevitable once Donald Trump had changed the game – betting an a US Presidential Election would never be the same again. The fields are no longer merely Republican and Democrat politicians but a...
View ArticleAre Trump betting markets underestimating Mueller?
Market sentiment towards Donald Trump is shifting significantly and, perhaps more pertinently, suddenly seems impervious to the relentless scandal and drama associated with this president. Back at the...
View ArticleWill the Blue Wave sweep a Trump heartland?
Since Donald Trump became President, his Democrat opponents have dominated a spate of special elections, thanks in no small part to a remarkable surge in enthusiasm and turnout. Many of us firmly...
View ArticlePrepare for drama as Mueller endgame nears
Chaos in the White House may have become an inevitable part of the daily US political diet, but the latest and looming developments seem to suggest a dramatic new – perhaps final – twist in the Donald...
View ArticleHow to win money by hedging between Betfair’s Trump specials
Betfair markets related to Donald Trump’s future are kicking off again as FBI investigations into the US President and his closest allies intensifies. At odds of 1.63, the chance of him serving a full...
View ArticleEscalating legal troubles spell bad news for Trump
Back in April, I explained the unique opportunities to hedge between various different, yet related, markets regarding Donald Trump’s future. While those odds have since shifted a little towards the...
View ArticleSuburban backlash in Ohio 12 to intensify GOP mid-term worries
The biggest political betting event of 2018 will be November’s mid-term US Congressional Elections. Three months out, Betfair markets rate control of the House of Representatives a virtually even...
View ArticleCorruption will finish Trump but don’t bet on impeachment
Its all kicking off again in what has become the most bizarre political market in history. Just when it seemed that bettors were giving up on Donald Trump leaving office prematurely, the US legal...
View ArticleThe next big political outsider – Michael Avenatti for President
*Since writing this piece yesterday for Betfair, Avenatti’s odds have fallen from [100.0] to [40.0]. Such moves are typical so early in the race, when it doesn’t take much money to shift the market. I...
View ArticleTexas Senate Betting: A race to define 2018 and beyond
Eight weeks tomorrow, US voters head to the polls for arguably the most important mid-term elections in their history. At stake is control of the House of Representatives, Senate and potentially by...
View ArticleHow to play Betfair’s ever increasing range of Trump Specials
One thing nobody could accuse Donald Trump of is failing to spark interest in political betting. From the moment he took office, bettors have been trading the date of his exit date and whether he would...
View ArticleUS Senate 2018: Backing No Majority offers numerous routes to profit
As the fallout from Brett Kavanaugh’s elevation to the Supreme Court dominates the headlines and narrative, the outcome of November’s mid-term elections remains unpredictable. Few are confidently...
View ArticleHow the Trump presidency will end and how to bet on it
Nobody in politics has ever known anything quite like Donald Trump and that equally applies to betting. His entry in 2015 sparked record-breaking interest in the US election and his wild ride in office...
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