How will Kavanaugh’s confirmation affect the mid-terms?
With Brett Kavanaugh confirmed to the Supreme Court, the most divisive incident of this most divisive presidency may have been settled, but the culture wars rumble on. The ramifications – whether they...
View Article2018 US Senate Betting Preview – Ten Key States
Arizona still too close to call Click here for latest odds Click here for latest polls A vivid example of the mountain Democrats need to climb in order to gain control of the Senate is that Arizona is...
View ArticleHave the US mid-term markets become too pro-Republican?
The 2016 effect continues to loom large over all political matters, including betting. Before Brexit and Trump, political betting was arguably the most reliable indicator of election results. In the...
View ArticleUS Mid-Term Elections Betting Preview
Next Tuesday, two years since his election shocked betting markets, Donald Trump will face the first meaningful electoral test of his presidency. Although his name is not on the ballot for local races...
View ArticleBetting plans for the mid-terms and the aftermath
There has never been a mid-term US election like it, whether measured by the nature of the campaign, media coverage, betting or the significance moving forward. Whether it was the Kavanaugh...
View ArticleWhy Donald Trump will not be re-elected in 2020
The world awoke yesterday to the US mid-term election results with one question in mind – will Donald Trump be re-elected? As I have argued consistently since he took office, the answer is no. Nothing...
View ArticleBeto O’Rourke is the star that Democrats need
Analysing the mid-terms, I argued that Donald Trump will not be re-elected and that there was a good chance he wouldn’t even be on the ballot. Today let’s consider who will take him, or a Republican...
View Article2020 US Election: Democrat Candidate Picks
A US Presidential Election is truly like no other, effectively lasting two years. Although the primaries do not start until February 2020, would-be candidates are already visiting the opening states –...
View ArticleHow to capitalise on Donald Trump’s inevitable demise
Never before have we seen a bigger driver of political betting than Donald Trump’s blockbuster drama. Seasons one and two saw an outsider become the candidate and defy conventional wisdom to become...
View ArticleBombshell revelations pose an ever greater threat to Trump
Once again, Betfair markets are moving against Donald Trump as the fallout from various legal troubles escalates. Impeachment by the House of Representatives is back down to even money – equivalent to...
View Article2019 Political Betting Preview – Five stories to follow
The number of betting options on politics is growing exponentially and 2019 will be no exception. Elections for the European Parliament will make big news in May and have big implications. A Danish...
View ArticleTrump presidency in mortal danger after shutdown humiliation
Following the mid-terms, I predicted all hell would break loose in the Donald Trump saga, from Robert Mueller to various criminal investigations, to ruinous oversight by a Democrat-led House of...
View Article2020 US Election: Amy Klobuchar would be Trump’s nightmare opponent
All elections are, apparently, now fought on social media. After 2016, it would be presumptive for political pundits to confidently predict who will fare best in that anarchic environment. I shall,...
View ArticleFive potential Republican primary challengers to Donald Trump
As if 2019 didn’t present enough problems for Donald Trump, there are indications that he is losing Republican support. Previously compliant Senators now oppose him on a range of issues – tariffs,...
View ArticleFour reasons why you shouldn’t bet on Bernie Sanders for 2020
This piece is from a fortnight ago. Bernie Sanders best odds are now 10/1 for the presidency and 11/2 for the Democrat nomination. All the arguments against still apply! A frequent political betting...
View ArticleCohen testimony was merely the start of Donald Trump’s nightmare
It made instant news around the world, overshadowing the North Korea summit failure, It even knocked Brexit off the Newsnight lead. Michael Cohen’s testimony to Congress was both captivating in detail...
View ArticleBeware the bandwagon – we’ve not yet seen the Mueller report
As he scours the headlines and hot takes on cable news, Donald Trump will enjoy this morning more than any since becoming president in 2016. The first glimpses of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s...
View ArticleBiden is the new front-runner but should we back him?
This piece was first written on 29th April 2019. The 19th and most significant Democrat candidate to date has declared for 2020. Amid a blaze of publicity, Joe Biden launched his presidential campaign...
View ArticleTrump impeachment is back on the agenda
This piece was first published on 22nd April 2019 When last updating the Donald Trump saga, following the release of Attorney General’s William Barr’s four page summary into Russia investigation, I...
View Article2020 US Election Betting: Is the Biden Bounce for real?
The most significant gamble towards the 2020 US Election is underway. In the fortnight since Joe Biden declared his candidacy, the former Vice President has risen to clear second favourite behind...
View Article