The electoral map looks devastating for Trump
Four years ago, at this stage of the 2012 presidential cycle, there was a stark difference between clear betting market signals and a commentariat loathe to jump off the fence. Whereas pundits were...
View ArticleIs 2016 the year for a minor party breakthrough?
From the moment 17 Republican candidates headed by a reality TV star kickstarted the process, the 2016 election cycle has been unique and unpredictable. With fewer than 80 days remaining, markets point...
View ArticleTraders can still win big from opposing Trump
As illustrated in previous portfolios, my betting plans are not necessarily based on taking a definitive prediction about the result or, in some cases, even taking much of a risk. Rather, the game is...
View ArticleTrump’s immigration balancing act looks shaky
After a generally disastrous run ever since becoming the presumptive nominee, Donald Trump has just enjoyed a good week. Though still trailing in the polls and historically weak on Betfair markets,...
View Article5 key stories that could shape the late narrative
In terms of both opinion polls and sentiment on Betfair markets, the race for the presidency is closing fast. Hillary Clinton remains the strongest favourite at this stage of a US election this...
View ArticlePraising Putin could halt Trump’s recent progress
Judging by the immediate reaction on social media, I wasn’t alone in finding Wednesday’s NBC Commander In Chief forum a profoundly depressing affair. On the worst interpretation, both Clinton and Trump...
View ArticleJust how damaged is Hillary Clinton?
She’s been the overwhelming favourite to succeed Barack Obama since Betfair’s Next President market opened, and is the shortest priced ever at this stage of a US election cycle. She couldn’t have...
View ArticleExtensive interview with Business Insider
Just before leaving for the States last weekend, I met up with Adam Payne from Business Insider UK for an extensive interview. An exciting opportunity, as I love this magazine and it’s willingness to...
View ArticleClinton’s dire weekend may actually work to her advantage
Back in January, when asked to list the ten best political betting markets of all time, I took the liberty of pre-empting this year’s presidential cycle. A safe bet that has more than delivered. After...
View ArticleMeasuring and reacting to Trump’s unarguable momentum
We’ve just seen two milestones passed on Betfair’s Next President market. First, the total matched has passed $50M – my estimate is it will go beyond $200M by polling day. Second and more...
View ArticleIn blowing his best ever news cycle, did Trump just lose the election?
There is no precise, scientific means of explaining what determines elections, opinion polls or betting markets. Each election and each candidate is unique, and even the individual voter cannot...
View ArticleTrump’s data deficit could cost him the election
Arguably the biggest single reason behind Donald Trump’s successful bid for the Republican nomination was the fact he has never been a politician. In an era when professional politicians and loathed...
View Article5 dynamics that could determine the first debate
1 Hillary Clinton’s health and appearance One might like to imagine that a debate to determine leader of the free world would be settled on a sombre analysis of their respective policy credentials, but...
View ArticleFive key takeaways from the first Presidential debate
1 Clinton reversed a bad news cycle to resume pole position Heading into Monday’s opening debate, Hillary Clinton backers had plenty to worry about. A combination of health concerns, intense scrutiny...
View ArticleMy trading plan for the electoral college
I’ve been saying for ages that the distribution of electoral college votes is my ideal strategy for the closing stretch of the election and today, I’ve published my first bet. New #Election2016 bet:...
View ArticleNew bets added to my #Election2016 portfolio
Slowly but surely liquidity in the various election markets is improving and, as it develops, I’m building my portfolio. Following last week’s bet on Clinton Electoral College Votes, I’ve now added two...
View ArticleAre Trump’s tax returns merely the first October Surprise?
No US Presidential Election would be complete without at least speculation of the infamous ‘October Surprise’. The gamechanging event, revelation or scandal that transforms the race. Just three days...
View ArticleCould Trump’s campaign implode or meltdown?
As momentum swings firmly towards Hillary Clinton, there will inevitably be talk of a Donald Trump comeback. There is still a month to go and the media needs a close race for rating purposes. However...
View ArticleTrump’s campaign in crisis ahead of St Louis debate
Losing the opening TV debate need not necessarily spell disaster for a presidential campaign. Four years ago, Barack Obama was widely assumed to have lost to Mitt Romney. The polls moved briefly...
View ArticleLocked in a negative spiral, Trump is on course for a huge defeat
If we can trust the opinion polls, Donald Trump’s bid for the presidency appears to be doomed. Three weeks from polling day and ahead of tomorrow’s final TV debate, the Republican candidate trails...
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