#NeverTrump’s growing legitimacy problem
Following his predictable runaway win in New York, and ahead of tomorrow’s five North-East primaries, Donald Trump is rated 70% likely on betting markets to be the Republican Nominee. Precisely the...
View ArticleTrump on the brink of victory ahead of Indiana
A presidential match-up between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton is rated likelier than ever after the front-runners totally dominated Tuesday’s round of primaries in the North-East. Clinton is now...
View ArticleNext market: Who will be Donald Trump’s running mate?
So after all that, the GOP race is over. No dramatic finale in California, let alone the fascinating, unique spectacle of a brokered convention. It seems incredible that, less than three weeks ago,...
View ArticleReflections on that incredible GOP race
In mentioning a profound sense of anti-climax, I probably speak for most political gamblers. A brokered Republican convention, given wall-to-wall media coverage, with endless speculation about rule...
View Article7 potential VP picks for Donald Trump
With the Republican nomination secure, the next big election market involves identifying Donald Trump’s running mate. So far I’ve taken two positions, opposing John Kasich and Ben Carson for the job....
View ArticleClinton on the brink of victory but can she unite Democrats?
Next Tuesday, arguably the most memorable primary season in the history of US politics will draw to a conclusion. Whereas the term ‘Super Tuesday’ is normally associated with the slew of key races at...
View ArticleWhy I’m backing Tom Perez for VP
The art of betting on politics, (or pretty much anything for that matter), is being able to cut through the froth. And there seems to be more froth around than usual this cycle. Granted, some of that...
View ArticleCould the GOP still block Donald Trump?
Just a week ago, Donald Trump’s improbable bid to be president was looking likelier than ever. Senior Republicans were uniting around him and his poll deficit was closing fast. Hillary Clinton drifted...
View ArticleSeven potential VP picks for Hillary Clinton
Now Hillary Clinton has passed the threshold to secure the Democrat nomination, betting focus shifts to her choice of running mate. In last week’s piece for Betfair, I weighed up the chances of seven...
View ArticleIs this how the GOP plan to ditch Donald Trump?
Against a backdrop of never ending controversy and catastrophic poll numbers, we’ve been waiting to see if and how Donald Trump’s enemies would try to stop him at the convention. We may now have an...
View ArticleStop Trump plot thickens with rules committee picks
A further significant development in the Republican nomination saga. We now know who will comprise the party’s Rules Committee, which will meet on July 14th to lay out the rules governing their...
View ArticleNew bets on the race to be Donald Trump’s VP
We are fast learning to expect the unconventional and unpredictable in politics, but it’s hard to remember any trickier market to play than this cycle’s Republican Vice Presidential Nominee. Quite...
View ArticleDonald Trump’s odds shorten again
The most unconventional and unlikely presidential candidate in US history just hit his highest rating yet in the race for the White House. In finally securing the Republican nomination, Donald Trump...
View ArticleWhy the VP picks could matter more this time
The first stage of the US Presidential Election betting cycle is finally complete. With Donald Trump and Mike Pence confirmed as the Republican ticket last week in Cleveland, Hillary Clinton named...
View ArticleUS Election Betting Portfolio Update
With the confirmation of both candidates at the party conventions, the second and final stage of the US Presidential Election is underway. A wide array of new, interesting markets have just opened on...
View ArticleCan Clinton maintain Betfair’s perfect record?
The predictive qualities of political betting markets have become an ever more salient talking point in recent years, based on a near perfect record in big elections. Since the inception of Betfair in...
View ArticleScrutiny will eventually destroy Donald Trump
Sceptics of my longstanding, confident prediction that Hillary Clinton will beat Donald Trump in November often ask the same question – “He’s got this far despite you all writing him off, so why can’t...
View Article7 reasons why Donald Trump won’t win
The idea that a celebrity, reality TV star could become US President always seemed faintly ridiculous – until Donald Trump defied the commentariat and betting odds to win the Republican nomination....
View ArticleIs it time to take #RecallTrump seriously?
As a gambler, one must always be mindful of talking up your own position. Of becoming too convinced by your own opinion that you can’t see the wood for the trees. I’ve been wrestling with this position...
View Article5 reasons why Brexit doesn’t mean Donald Trump will win
The decision of UK voters to quit the European Union did not just send shockwaves through British politics. The world was watching, seeking to understand what it may signify for their own futures....
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