Bet update: Taking cover as Trump nomination looks inevitable
There is no two ways about it – the scale of Donald Trump’s third consecutive, overwhelming victory, in the Nevada Caucus, sent an ominous signal to his rivals for the GOP nomination. The window is...
View ArticleIs Texas debate the last chance to derail Trump’s bandwagon?
I’ve long lost count of the number of Republican debates we’ve seen in this extraordinary cycle. They have all been entertaining – in ways never seen before in politics, closer to a celebrity cage...
View ArticleRubio takes fight to Trump, but is it too late?
The question, posed immediately after Thursday’s CNN Debate by so many pundits, is why on earth did Marco Rubio wait until the tenth debate to truly take the fight to Donald Trump? There is no doubt...
View ArticleSuper Tuesday produces a night of market mayhem!
Navigating a 24/7 instant news cycle is a fundamental challenge for gamblers – never more so than when politics is the market in question. Should we listen to the plethora of polls, even if they are...
View ArticleDon’t believe the hype. Trump is not dominant. Yet.
The big stories on election betting markets this week have been (a) a series of massive upsets on Super Tuesday and (b) the ongoing uncertainty about just how likely Donald Trump is to be the...
View ArticleInterview for “Morning Briefing” on Sirius XM
Yesterday I was an in-studio guest on “Morning Affair POTUS” at one of my favourite radio stations, Sirius XM, interviewed by Tim Farley. This was a particularly enjoyable interview, giving me the...
View ArticleKasich won’t be VP, but here’s how he could become President
Since the outset of the anarchic cage fight otherwise known as the Republican Party primary process, John Kasich has been dismissed by betting markets as a rank outsider. That is beginning to change....
View ArticleWill a busy weekend see more Super Tuesday style shocks?
Four days ago, Super Tuesday produced one of the most dramatic nights in the history of political betting, with two sub 1.03 chances going down as several results proved much closer than the polls or...
View ArticleTwo new anti-Trump bets as his bid stalls
We’ve just had four more results in the Republican Nomination process, with two wins apiece for Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. I’ve been tweeting all day about it and will doubtless be writing and talking...
View ArticleNext steps in the Republican race
After months of watching the GOP civil war unfold live at the TV debates, the latest one from Miami came as something of a culture shock. On what could plausibly be the last one, or at least the last...
View ArticleFive pivotal races for Super Tuesday 3
This year’s US Election cycle differs from the historical norm in so many ways, and not just due to unique candidates like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. Normally by mid-March, the parties would be...
View ArticleSuper Tuesday is crunch time for the #NeverTrump movement
Although there are many more important dates during the remaining three months of the primary schedule, two stand out as pivotal and ultimately decisive. The first is tomorrow and will go a long way...
View ArticleSuper Tuesday 3: Bets and predictions
On what feels like it will be the most important night yet of this election, we have ten races to predict and play. Some of the odds have changed in the meantime, but yesterday’s piece offers a brief...
View ArticleArizona could be the last chance to stop Trump
As in everything, the gap between success and failure can be painfully thin in both betting and politics. The Missouri primaries demonstrated precisely why betting on politics can be so much fun. The...
View ArticleMarkets strongly signal Clinton beating Trump
As one unique candidate continues to dominate headlines and divide opinion across the world, Betfair markets are delivering a clear verdict on how the Donald Trump saga will develop, and end. Trump is...
View ArticleMarkets swing towards a contested convention
If one takes the view that the Republican Nominee can only be the candidate who earns the most delegates from the primaries, there is a rare opportunity to make money. Either Donald Trump or Ted Cruz...
View Article#Election2016 betting portfolio update
After nine months of betting, my full election bets portfolio page is getting ever harder to keep track of, so here’s some simpler profit and loss figures for the Republican Nominee and Next President...
View ArticleTrump weakening on Betfair as convention drama looms
Betfair punters are fast losing faith in Donald Trump after a terrible week. From odds of 1.4 last weekend, equivalent to a 71% rating to win the Republican Nomination, the front-runner has drifted...
View ArticleIs Donald Trump now being under-rated?
If not, there must be huge value to be found elsewhere Ahead of what seems a likely defeat tonight in Wisconsin, market support for Donald Trump continues to deteriorate. At 2.06 this morning, the GOP...
View ArticleFront-runners to regain momentum in New York
When the primaries began well over two months ago, few expected both Republican and Democrat races would still be exciting betting heats by the time the process reached New York. Normally at this...
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