Six Reasons Why The 2020 Election Will Be Nothing Like 2016
This article first appeared at gamblerspick.com on 7th July 2020 Exactly 17 weeks today, US voters head to the polls for what appears, right now, to be their most one-sided election of the 21st...
View ArticleHow Bad, And What Are The Implications Of Trump’s Legal Troubles?
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 10th July At their final sitting of this term, the US Supreme Court offered considerable relief to those fearing the rule of law was in mortal...
View ArticleWho should, and who will, be Joe Biden’s VP pick?
This article first appeared on 14th July at betting.betfair.com We are five weeks out from the Democratic Convention, by which time Joe Biden’s choice of running mate will be confirmed. Until that...
View ArticleDemocrats On Course For A Big Win – Here’s Four Ways To Cash In
This piece first appeared at gamblerspick.com on 22nd July 2020 Polling signals, whether at national or state level, continue to point strongly towards a landslide victory for Joe Biden. The former...
View ArticleHow previous presidential elections panned out during the final 100 days
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 25th July 2020 Exactly 100 days remain until the US election – a useful marker for the beginning of the final stretch. While we await official...
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Why Re-fighting the Last Election Rarely Makes Sense
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 29th July 2020 Nate Silver has some rather unflattering comments to make about the rationale of betting markets. I don't think people realize how...
View ArticleDemocrat VP Betting: Can we trust the Kamala gamble?
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 4th August 2020 According to the Washington Post, Joe Biden will announce his running mate at the end of next week, just ahead of the Democrat...
View ArticleElectoral College Betting: Biden Is On Course For A Landslide
This article first appeared at gamblerspick.com on August 5th 2020 As promised last time, here’s an introduction to my favourite US election market, involving the margin of victory. The presidency is...
View ArticleUS Election: Trump v Biden Betting Update
This article first appeared at Betfair Australia’s The Hub, on 11th August 2020 When last discussing the US election for The Hub and in my extensive interview with Betfair, the betting was roughly...
View ArticleDemocrat Convention: Biden’s Big Tent is Very Smart Strategy
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 19th August 2020 Convention season is underway, with the Democrats going first in Milwaukee, followed by the Republicans in Charlotte from next...
View ArticleWhy Do The Election Odds Differ From Polls? Eight Explanations
This article first appeared at gamblerspick.com on 20th August 2020 There has never been a mismatch like it in the history of political betting. According to Betfair – based on peer-to-peer trading...
View ArticleUS Election: Kamala Harris is a risk that could backfire on Biden
This piece first appeared at betting.betfair.com on August 13th 2020. It is my initial reaction to the VP selection. After months of drama, it turns out the market was right all along. Kamala Harris...
View ArticleUS Election: Trump ends convention season on a betting high
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on August 28th 2020 Following the Democrat and Republican conventions, the verdict from Betfair punters is clear. Donald Trump has a considerably...
View ArticleUS Election: Will protests and violence help Trump?
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on August 31st 2020 Later today, Joe Biden will resume in-person campaigning with an address in Pennsylvania, in which the Democrat nominee will...
View ArticlePolls dismiss Trump’s comeback narrative but will the market react?
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 3rd September 2020 Unofficially and metaphorically, the starting pistol for the closing, intense stretch of the general election campaign is fired...
View ArticleWhere can we find reliable information on the US Election?
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 4th September The year 2016 represented the birth of the post-truth world and that depressing state of affairs is now the norm. This election will...
View ArticleAvoid the Monster Trump Gamble – The Fundamental Numbers Haven’t Changed
This article first appeared at gamblerspick.com on 3rd September 2020 Even during the last five years of dramatic political betting, I cannot recall anything quite like the last week. An avalanche of...
View ArticleFive Reasons Why Comparisons Between Biden And Clinton Don’t Stack Up
This article first appeared on 7th September at betting.betfair.com Betfair markets continue to diverge significantly from polling models, despite a stack of evidence emerging to disprove the...
View ArticleUS Election Review – Result vindicates the betting signals
As regular readers will have noted, its been a few months since my last post. This was due to working non-stop during the US election run-in and a long overdue break once it became clear Biden had...
View ArticleWill Latest Trump Tape Swing The Georgia Senate Run-offs?
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 4th January 2001 During his five and a half year in politics, even the most committed Trump-watchers lost count of the number of shocking moments,...
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